"Now this is not the end.  It is not even the beginning of the end.  But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."  The words were uttered by Winston Churchill in November, 1942 during the dark days of World War II.  The Allied forces had just invaded N. Africa and began notching several key victories in that theater of the war.  Optimists began asking if this turning of the tide signaled the end for the Axis powers.  Churchill recognized that there were many battles to be fought before Hitler and his legions would be stopped.

Over 60 years later, many of us seem to be asking the same question regarding the economic meltdown gripping the U.S. economy.  We all seem to be looking for signs, something to signal that the turnaround is upon us.  A few economists even went as far as to announce that the recession had ended last month.  All of us have different measures for determining the health of our economy - unemployment rates, GDP, the Dow Jones average - are frequently cited.  In the US, given the close connection between curb and gutter and subdivisions, housing starts is one of our best measures.  Activity from the past few months indicates that housing starts may have finally bottomed out.  Single-family housing starts increased by 14% from May to June and existing home inventories dropped by 3.5% during that period.  Estimated numbers for 2010, though nowhere near the 2005-2007 levels, show that housing starts should increase by 35% from 2009. 

 The end of the recession?  Hardly.  The beginning of the end?  Probably not.  The end of the beginning?  Let's hope.